Just 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
